Global textile network July 5th news on June 21st, by China Cotton Information Center Reserve held " 2011 cotton top academic summit" held in Beijing, meeting for two days, to strengthen the international cotton industry academic exchanges, enhance the global cotton market data analysis and predictive level analysis in the future global cotton supply and demand trend, promote industry of our country cotton sustainable development.
The main cotton producing and consuming country in the senior officials, experts and scholars, the leaders of relevant departments, research institutions and well-known cotton cotton, textile enterprise leadership, on the year and future global cotton to produce need to forecast data analysis and research results were discussed. Will go up now experts on China's cotton production, consumption and inventory analysis and prediction of the report, I hope to grasp the situation of cotton textile enterprises to some extent.
Domestic cotton yield 6500000 tons
National Bureau of Statistics Rural Social Economic Investigation Division of agricultural production director Huang Jiacai
Affected by various factors, in recent years China's cotton yields larger fluctuation, from 2008 to 2010 consecutive substantially reduction of output ; cotton sows area fluctuated greatly, from 2006 to 2010, cotton area to reduce 3196000 mus, fell by an annual average of 0.7%.
At present, China cotton production and development are three major factors. First of all, cotton and grain compares benefit to change. Cotton benefit of great uncertainty, such as price fluctuation, with low prices to sell the risk. While food benefits expected to be stable, the country supports commissariat price to rise steadily, minimum annual purchase price are improved. Two subjects compared to most farmers prefer to grow food.
Secondly, cotton cultivation and technology restrict cotton production. Cotton planting mechanization rate is low, needs more time to field management in labour force price rises ceaselessly today, it seems to be growing cotton rib. In addition to Xinjiang, other area mostly by individual farmers planted mainly concentrated planting few restrictions on the number of Yield-increasing planting technology application on cotton. Due to the small size of the application of new cultivation technology of farmer 's enthusiasm is not tall.
Once again, the government pays more attention to the grain production, to cotton production did not encourage policy, its laissez-faire and free development.
Analysis of the development trend of Chinese cotton production, cotton sows an area is likely to shrink further, especially in the traditional cotton will decline further. Xinjiang region along with the grain production allowance strength further to commissariat advocate produce a division line, cotton sows an area to drop may also exist. Therefore, in the future for a long period of time, China's cotton sows an area to be in 70000000 mus ~ 80000000 acres between fluctuations. Come nearly 5 years, our country cotton per unit area yield has been around, and no significant improvement. If no new variety of high yield cotton per unit area yield, difficult to have greatly improved. Comprehensive analysis, the next few years China's cotton crop will be around 6500000 tons of fluctuation.
Future pily consumption tends to decline
- China Cotton Information Center reserve information director Feng Mengxiao
There are four major factors affecting China's cotton consumption.
First, China's labor supply will restrict the development of the textile industry. Demographers believe that in 2015 China's working-age population increase is zero, then the working age population amount decreases, labor shortage will be more serious. In recent years, Chinese enterprises to hire difficult question is more and more serious. China Cotton network according to a recent survey, 72% of the textile enterprises that recruitment difficulties, 89% of the enterprises that pay relatively on year rise considerably.
In second, cotton and substitute competition aggravate. In recent years, fiber and other fiber comfort constantly improve, non cotton on cotton alternative gradually increased, the use of renewable resources a larger space. In 2010, including China, global cotton crop to drop, the price rises considerably, cotton and chemical fiber chemical fiber production expands, difference is pulled ceaselessly big, as of June 17th, the annual cotton and polyester staple fiber price for an average of 13339 yuan / ton, 2008 year 3.5 times over the same period. Cotton spinning enterprise ratio decreased significantly.
Third, huge foreign exchange reserve pressure will change China's textile trade pattern. 3 at the end of 2011, China 's foreign exchange reserve amounts to 3044700000000 dollar, grow 24.4% compared to the same period. The current inflation pressure rise and the fluidity surplus, RMB appreciation of the dollar depreciation of long-term, increasingly, China is in urgent need of control state of the scale of foreign exchange reserve grows too quickly. China's textile trade situation is faced with adjust, trade policy direction by encouraging exports to stimulate domestic consumption, textile production capacity will be restricted.
Fourth, environmental protection, energy and land on the textile industry and development constitute constraints. In recent years, China's energy-saving emission reduction efforts, the textile industry wastewater emissions at home in all kinds of industrial wastewater emissions accounted for about 6.5%, printing and dyeing industry production capacity can not meet the demand of downstream problems have occurred. Since April this year, the country more than 10 provinces appear off-season "electric shortage ." China Cotton network according to a recent survey, pull brake to be restricted report seriously affect the textile enterprises, 28% enterprises productivity decline in 10%, the enterprise of 32% dropped to 10% ~ 30%. In addition, price rises quickly caused the textile enterprises lack of land, plant rentals increased significantly.
Overall, China's textile industry in the future will still maintain a larger scale, but the cotton textile industry to expand production capacity is very limited. The future of textile raw materials structure will produce bigger change, regenerated fiber utilization will get attention increasingly, chemical fiber and regenerated fiber proportion will gradually increase the proportion, cotton tends to decrease. These factors on cotton textile industry influence is long-term.
In view of China's infrastructure is relatively complete, the economic development of regional characteristics, textile industry chain is relatively perfect, well before 2015 compression capacity is unlikely. The 2006 annual 11200000 tons of cotton consumption or will be a historical peak. The future of China cotton consumption remained within 10000000 tons scale as the probability of the event, 3 ~ 5 years, pily consumption is expected to remain at 8000000 ~ 9000000 tons, cotton production in 6000000 ~ 7000000 tons, cotton imports and consumption ratio in about 20%.
Inventory changes affecting the cotton price operation
- China Cotton Information Center Reserve research director Cheng Jie
Although the price of cotton by the stock outside the various factors, but from long-term look, stock change on cotton price trend plays a fundamental role.
China cotton market circulation system reform, and the relationship between price of cotton stock rises apparently, come nearly 10 years between the correlation coefficient of - 0.56.
China cotton inventory seasonal characteristics. The purchase and sale of lint annual link inventory than normal year high. As of June 17th, the acquisition of enterprise lint sales rate of 75.6%, 16.6 percentage points year-on-year decline over the past 4 years in a normal year dropped 8.3 percentage points. According to the domestic cotton is expected to yield 6230000 tons of calculating, countrywide accumulative total lint 6100000 tons, sales of 4610000 tons of lint cotton, lint inventory 1600000 tons, compared with the same period last year more than 960000 tons.
China's cotton industry stock is of obvious seasonal characteristics. Overall look, industry inventory levels since the beginning of year continues to increase, to a quarter after falling to a higher level. Compared with the previous year, the 2010 year textile enterprises industry inventory levels since 4 months begin to drop compared to the same period, annual is expected later further restoration to the annual level.
According to the national cotton market monitoring system sampling survey, as of June 8th, countrywide cotton industry inventory equal to 36.9 days the amount of cotton, about 1010000 tons, were less than 3.1%, nearly three years the average inventory reduces 1.5%.
China cotton inventory levels to global gross greatly. Nearly 10 years China Cotton ending inventory and global levels were highly correlated between the correlation coefficient of 72%. The new year at home and abroad to pily inventory structure imbalance, China Cotton stage high inventory levels era has ended. Domestic and foreign stocks rebound trend differences promote cotton imports. High inventory will promote the international market price regression.